![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
damont(Originally posted to my GoFundMe, and backdated to the date of that original post. This is basically copied verbatim, including the fundraising stuff at the end; I *was* posting to GoFundMe after all. Feel free to ignore those bits if you want. Link to the fundraiser will be provided in the comments and upon request.)
It's time for the next installment of "SARS-COV-2/COVID-19 related useful links meets the traditional non-photo begging post." I'm going kind of numbers geek on this one, with a couple of links showing why we're doing the whole social distancing thing and everything else related thereto.
The Coronavirus Curve - Numberphile
Mathematics and Coronavirus - Numberphile
And now, some of my own take on all this. First off: we are way past the point where our actions could actually STOP the spread of this virus this year. I don't expect a vaccine to be widely available in the next 12 months, and that would be the only way to actually STOP it once it's become this widespread. We were probably past the point of being able to stop it a month or two (or 3) ago. Second point: the actions that folks are being urged to take probably WON'T change the overall number of people who catch this virus during this cycle of our modern plague. (And yes, there's a chance that this will come back around on the guitar a few times. The 1918 worldwide flu pandemic had at least three distinct waves.) But what these actions WILL do is spread out the infections over a longer period of time.
What does that mean? Two things. One, it reduces how many people are infected with the virus AT ANY GIVEN TIME. This is *directly* related to the ability of the medical system to handle the pandemic. If we keep the active infection levels below the medical system's capacity to handle them, then even if the same number of people catch the disease, FEWER PEOPLE WILL DIE. Two, "flattening the curve" BUYS US MORE TIME to develop effective treatments (and, in the longer run, vaccines) so that, over enough time, not only will fewer people be killed by this virus, but folks who don't catch the virus until later in the year may be able to have their symptoms better mitigated. The moral of this story? Do whatever you can to flatten the curve. Which leads me to my final link of this post:
FlattenTheCurve.com
Following the PSA portion of this post comes the usual begging stuff. As you may expect, in addition to the usual plea for help for ourselves, I'm going to ask those of you who can to SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL BUSINESSES that are still open. Help keep your local economy a little bit more afloat, as and if you can. For example, my parents are taking part in this by getting takeout for dinner tonight. And remember that once the worst of this has passed, locally owned businesses will be struggling to get back on their feet, so please be ready to patronize them as much as you can when it's time for them to reopen.
And now, because we STILL can't afford shame, here's my shameless and desperate plea for help. Please PLEASE spread the word as much as you feel able; share this fundraiser on lots of social media, by email, even by writing the link on pieces of paper and passing them around. Encourage folks you know to donate and to spread the word themselves. I've long since estimated that I'll need about 1,000 different contributors to make the goal, so getting the word out is important. And IF YOU ARE ABLE TO, please donate, though we know that a few of you have done so in the past couple of weeks (for which A GREAT BIG THANK YOU) and lots of you just can't. But even a spare 5 or 10 clams, if that's all you can afford, is appreciated. Every little bit helps. (Remember, NO FEELING GUILTY if you don't have the means to contribute, or enough spoons to spread the word as far as you'd like.) And just as with the last several of these photo-less begging posts, if you have any job leads for either of us, PLEASE contact us! Relocation is TOTALLY an option.
Again, if anyone here actually is in a position to help out, right now would be a truly awesome time to do so. If you can't, you can't; I understand that better than most... thanks in advance for whatever you can do, and best greetings of the season to you and yours. If you celebrate Passover, have a blessed Pesach even if you have to do your Seder by conference call. Likewise for Western Christians, have a blessed Holy Week. (I'll probably have one more of these posts before Eater itself.) STAY SAFE. Wash your hands, keep hydrated, boost your immune system by whatever means works for you. Practice social distancing as much you realistically can. Keep in touch with your friends and loved ones from a safe distance. Tell them you care and that you're thinking of them. And as always, thank you for your continued support.
It's time for the next installment of "SARS-COV-2/COVID-19 related useful links meets the traditional non-photo begging post." I'm going kind of numbers geek on this one, with a couple of links showing why we're doing the whole social distancing thing and everything else related thereto.
The Coronavirus Curve - Numberphile
Mathematics and Coronavirus - Numberphile
And now, some of my own take on all this. First off: we are way past the point where our actions could actually STOP the spread of this virus this year. I don't expect a vaccine to be widely available in the next 12 months, and that would be the only way to actually STOP it once it's become this widespread. We were probably past the point of being able to stop it a month or two (or 3) ago. Second point: the actions that folks are being urged to take probably WON'T change the overall number of people who catch this virus during this cycle of our modern plague. (And yes, there's a chance that this will come back around on the guitar a few times. The 1918 worldwide flu pandemic had at least three distinct waves.) But what these actions WILL do is spread out the infections over a longer period of time.
What does that mean? Two things. One, it reduces how many people are infected with the virus AT ANY GIVEN TIME. This is *directly* related to the ability of the medical system to handle the pandemic. If we keep the active infection levels below the medical system's capacity to handle them, then even if the same number of people catch the disease, FEWER PEOPLE WILL DIE. Two, "flattening the curve" BUYS US MORE TIME to develop effective treatments (and, in the longer run, vaccines) so that, over enough time, not only will fewer people be killed by this virus, but folks who don't catch the virus until later in the year may be able to have their symptoms better mitigated. The moral of this story? Do whatever you can to flatten the curve. Which leads me to my final link of this post:
FlattenTheCurve.com
Following the PSA portion of this post comes the usual begging stuff. As you may expect, in addition to the usual plea for help for ourselves, I'm going to ask those of you who can to SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL BUSINESSES that are still open. Help keep your local economy a little bit more afloat, as and if you can. For example, my parents are taking part in this by getting takeout for dinner tonight. And remember that once the worst of this has passed, locally owned businesses will be struggling to get back on their feet, so please be ready to patronize them as much as you can when it's time for them to reopen.
And now, because we STILL can't afford shame, here's my shameless and desperate plea for help. Please PLEASE spread the word as much as you feel able; share this fundraiser on lots of social media, by email, even by writing the link on pieces of paper and passing them around. Encourage folks you know to donate and to spread the word themselves. I've long since estimated that I'll need about 1,000 different contributors to make the goal, so getting the word out is important. And IF YOU ARE ABLE TO, please donate, though we know that a few of you have done so in the past couple of weeks (for which A GREAT BIG THANK YOU) and lots of you just can't. But even a spare 5 or 10 clams, if that's all you can afford, is appreciated. Every little bit helps. (Remember, NO FEELING GUILTY if you don't have the means to contribute, or enough spoons to spread the word as far as you'd like.) And just as with the last several of these photo-less begging posts, if you have any job leads for either of us, PLEASE contact us! Relocation is TOTALLY an option.
Again, if anyone here actually is in a position to help out, right now would be a truly awesome time to do so. If you can't, you can't; I understand that better than most... thanks in advance for whatever you can do, and best greetings of the season to you and yours. If you celebrate Passover, have a blessed Pesach even if you have to do your Seder by conference call. Likewise for Western Christians, have a blessed Holy Week. (I'll probably have one more of these posts before Eater itself.) STAY SAFE. Wash your hands, keep hydrated, boost your immune system by whatever means works for you. Practice social distancing as much you realistically can. Keep in touch with your friends and loved ones from a safe distance. Tell them you care and that you're thinking of them. And as always, thank you for your continued support.
